TEHRAN NINE — the 60 Minutes Iran-strike ring (RING-0002)
Military-specialty odds anomaly z = 4.77 (~1 in a million under the odds-conditioned binomial null)
- 5 of 9 publicly reported wallets reconstructed and settled against on-chain CTF payoutNumerators; 44 of 49 markets resolved, 5 unresolved omitted (never proxied).
- 77.2% of bets sit in one specialty (Iran/Israel military action): 32 of 44 won (72.7%) vs 20.4 odds-implied expected → z = 4.77.
- 12 sub-0.40 longshot wins where chance allowed 3.6 (~3.3x); avg specialty entry 0.463, not favorites.
- 4 of 5 wallets received first-ever USDC within a 32.98-hour window (Feb 15-16, 2026); all 5 first-funded by the same exchange hot wallet 0xf70da9...dbef.
- $1,949,573 settled buy notional; detector fires all 5 joint gates (z, specialty, low-odds, coordination, burst); composite at 99.52nd percentile of the matched-random-cluster null.
Five reconstructed accounts won long-odds Iran war-strike bets together, days after four of them were born in the same 33-hour window — a coordination-and-foresight statistical signature roughly one-in-a-million by chance.
Not an accusation against any person and no proof of common control — the funding graph is empty by construction (exchange-routed), intent is unobservable, and our numbers are deliberately SMALLER than the public 98%/$2.4M figure. This measures foresight (dominant bought outcome vs on-chain winner), not P&L; no dollar profit is claimed. One ring wallet (fuego66) lost 8 of 10.