Prediction-market integrity intelligencePublic data only · Wallets, not people
RINGER.report
RIGCHECK·Coordination detector · public data onlyDetection, not advice

Is this prediction market gamed?

Paste a market, get a verdict. RigCheck runs RINGER’s coordination detector over the settled trader population and returns one of three read-outs: a CRITICAL coordination signature, coordinated favorite-carry (moving together, but no foresight), or no signature detected. Every verdict is a statistical statement about wallets, not people.

Detection, not advice

RigCheck describes coordination signatures statistically. It never tells you to buy, sell, follow, copy, or fade anything — we falsified trading these signals and the brand forbids it.

We reproduced the ring

The same detector independently reconstructed the 60 Minutes / Bubblemaps Iran-strike ring from public on-chain data — at a smaller, hedged figure than the TV numbers.

We don’t accuse people

We name wallets, never people, we never assert intent or fraud as fact, and every CRITICAL flag is human-reviewed before it publishes.

Everything is appealable

Flagged an account you control? Write appeals@ringer.report — human review within 5 business days, corrections as prominent as the claim.

Verdicts · worked examples

Five real markets, three verdicts.

These are actual RigCheck read-outs on settled markets. The first is the CRITICAL case the detector exists for; the second shows the tool not crying wolf — provable coordination it explicitly refuses to call foresight; the last three are clean controls, including Iran-story and war-adjacent markets that came out with no signature detected.

RIGCHECK·Detection, not adviceCritical flag

TEHRAN NINE — the 60 Minutes Iran-strike ring (RING-0002)

Military-specialty odds anomaly z = 4.77 (~1 in a million under the odds-conditioned binomial null)

  • 5 of 9 publicly reported wallets reconstructed and settled against on-chain CTF payoutNumerators; 44 of 49 markets resolved, 5 unresolved omitted (never proxied).
  • 77.2% of bets sit in one specialty (Iran/Israel military action): 32 of 44 won (72.7%) vs 20.4 odds-implied expected → z = 4.77.
  • 12 sub-0.40 longshot wins where chance allowed 3.6 (~3.3x); avg specialty entry 0.463, not favorites.
  • 4 of 5 wallets received first-ever USDC within a 32.98-hour window (Feb 15-16, 2026); all 5 first-funded by the same exchange hot wallet 0xf70da9...dbef.
  • $1,949,573 settled buy notional; detector fires all 5 joint gates (z, specialty, low-odds, coordination, burst); composite at 99.52nd percentile of the matched-random-cluster null.

Five reconstructed accounts won long-odds Iran war-strike bets together, days after four of them were born in the same 33-hour window — a coordination-and-foresight statistical signature roughly one-in-a-million by chance.

What this does & doesn’t claim

Not an accusation against any person and no proof of common control — the funding graph is empty by construction (exchange-routed), intent is unobservable, and our numbers are deliberately SMALLER than the public 98%/$2.4M figure. This measures foresight (dominant bought outcome vs on-chain winner), not P&L; no dollar profit is claimed. One ring wallet (fuego66) lost 8 of 10.

ringer.report · wallets, not people · we don’t trade what we flagdocs/ringer-report-1-tehran-nine.md — detector run 2026-07-09 (ringer_v2_detector.py, Test A); on-chain CTF settlement reads; human-reviewed dossier.
Flagged account? appeals@ringer.report · every claim appealable, human review within 5 business daysHow RINGER works →

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RIGCHECK·Detection, not adviceCoordinated · favorite-carry

GLASS ANVIL — one operator, ten wallets on US-Iran diplomacy markets (RING-0001)

9 of 10 wallets seeded by one on-chain funder (0xc536...aaf41) — provably one operator, +0.052 edge-over-price only

  • 10 funding-linked wallets deployed $69,913 across 13 US-Iran markets, June 7-21, 2026; one wallet (0xf0d5...c665) holds $67,175 = 96% of the capital.
  • 98% of settled positions resolved their way — but at an average entry price of 0.93 (deep favorites the market already expected).
  • Edge over closing price is real (+5 cents) but sits entirely inside one correlated news story.
  • Detector classifies this as favorite-carry, NOT an information signature: no long-odds pre-event buying, unlike TEHRAN NINE (avg entry 0.463).
  • Contrast pair: same detection method, opposite species — GLASS ANVIL = coordination WITHOUT foresight signature; TEHRAN NINE = coordination WITH it.

A single operator split money across ten wallets and won by buying near-certain favorites — coordination is provable, but there is no sign they knew anything the market didn't.

What this does & doesn’t claim

This is the tool NOT crying wolf: coordination is verifiable via the shared funder, but we explicitly flag it as favorite-carry, not insider information. No claim of non-public information, no allegation against any person, and no repeatable edge to copy.

ringer.report · wallets, not people · we don’t trade what we flagdocs/ringer-report-0-glass-anvil.md — funding-graph v1 clustering; shared funder 0xc536633ff12ee52e280b2af2594031060c5aaf41 (public on Polygonscan).
Flagged account? appeals@ringer.report · every claim appealable, human review within 5 business daysHow RINGER works →

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RIGCHECK·Detection, not adviceNo signature detected

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026

No coordination signature detected across 1,230 traders — 0 of them in any flagged cohort

  • 11,996 fills, 1,230 distinct wallets, $1,174,686 notional (largest clean market in the published set).
  • Resolved NO (no meeting by the deadline); trading window 2026-06-30 to 2026-07-04.
  • Zero fills from the only ELEVATED cohort currently in ringer_v2_candidates — verified directly against the trade tape.
  • This is an Iran-story market that came out clean: the detector does not blanket-flag a whole news category.

A big, heavily-traded Iran diplomacy market where the scan found no wallet cluster clearing its coordination bar.

What this does & doesn’t claim

"Clean" means no coordination signature was detected in the settled trader population — NOT that the market is safe, fair, or free of any misconduct we cannot see. No individual is named or cleared.

ringer.report · wallets, not people · we don’t trade what we flagringer-web/data/markets.json + eb-openclaw.ticks.pm_news_wallet_market_trades (condition_id 0x545e1bf6...b718383); cross-checked against ringer_v2_candidates (0 flagged fills).
Flagged account? appeals@ringer.report · every claim appealable, human review within 5 business daysHow RINGER works →

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RIGCHECK·Detection, not adviceNo signature detected

Bank of Russia decreases the key rate after the June 2026 meeting

No coordination signature detected across 509 traders — 0 in any flagged cohort

  • 2,297 fills, 509 distinct wallets, $73,915 notional; category geopolitics/macro (a non-Middle-East control).
  • Resolved YES (the rate was decreased); trading window 2026-03-20 to 2026-06-19.
  • Zero fills from the only ELEVATED cohort in ringer_v2_candidates — verified directly against the trade tape.
  • Included to show a clean result outside the Iran cluster, on a routine central-bank event market.

A macro central-bank market with hundreds of traders and no detected wallet-cluster coordination.

What this does & doesn’t claim

"Clean" means no coordination signature was detected in the settled trader population — not a verdict that the market or any trader is fair or above suspicion. No individual is named or cleared.

ringer.report · wallets, not people · we don’t trade what we flagringer-web/data/markets.json + eb-openclaw.ticks.pm_news_wallet_market_trades (condition_id 0x1daa856d...c8db7a3d); cross-checked against ringer_v2_candidates (0 flagged fills).
Flagged account? appeals@ringer.report · every claim appealable, human review within 5 business daysHow RINGER works →

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RIGCHECK·Detection, not adviceNo signature detected

Israel closes its airspace by June 11, 2026

No coordination signature detected across 575 traders — 0 in any flagged cohort

  • 3,856 fills, 575 distinct wallets, $405,780 notional; a Middle-East war-adjacent market.
  • Resolved NO (airspace not closed by the deadline); trading window 2026-06-08 to 2026-06-12.
  • Zero fills from the only ELEVATED cohort in ringer_v2_candidates — verified directly against the trade tape.
  • A high-stakes conflict market from the same period that produced no flagged cluster — a second in-theater clean control.

A busy Israel-conflict market during the same weeks as the flagged activity, where the scan found no coordinated wallet cluster.

What this does & doesn’t claim

"Clean" means no coordination signature was detected in the settled trader population — not proof the market is safe or fair, and not a clearance of any trader. No individual is named.

ringer.report · wallets, not people · we don’t trade what we flagringer-web/data/markets.json + eb-openclaw.ticks.pm_news_wallet_market_trades (condition_id 0xe77a0077...5b5d6); cross-checked against ringer_v2_candidates (0 flagged fills).
Flagged account? appeals@ringer.report · every claim appealable, human review within 5 business daysHow RINGER works →

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Request a check
Wizard-of-Oz test

Want a market checked?

RigCheck is in a test run right now — a human runs the detector and writes the verdict, so we can see which markets people actually want checked before we automate it. Reply on X with a market, or join the list and tell us what to check. No result is a trade signal, and nothing you send becomes an accusation against a person.

If the signup can't reach our list, the button falls back to a pre-filled email to hello@ringer.report (subject “RINGER launch list”). How we handle your address: Privacy.

What a verdict means
Notice

A RigCheck verdict is a probabilistic statement about wallets in a market’s settled trader population — never an accusation against a person, and never a claim of insider trading or fraud as established fact. A “CRITICAL” read means a coordination signature cleared our statistical bar; it does not prove common control or intent, both of which are unobservable from on-chain data.

A “no signature detected” (clean) verdict means exactly that — no coordination signature was found in the settled trader population. It is not a finding that the market is safe, fair, or free of misconduct we cannot see, and it clears no one.

RINGER does not trade any market it flags or analyzes, and nothing here recommends a position. Full method and limits: how RINGER works.

Appeals & corrections·The No-Trading Rule·The dossiers